Peak Oil: What does it really mean?

BP recently published a statistical review of world energy.

Saudi Arabia and Iran account for 1/3 of the global oil reserves. Venezuela is the largest oil producing country out of the Middle East region.


The report stopped short of suggesting that we are at peak oil. However, a senior energy economist from Shell whom I met two years ago in Cambridge revealed that peak oil is already behind us. We are at the decline of global oil reserves.

However BP did link up their findings with an analysis with how much time we're left before we run out of oil. According to them, if the world continues to produce oil at the rate we are at and with current estimates of oil reserves, we will only have 42 years left to find a replacement to oil.

In my opinion, the problem we are facing is not peak oil. We are not running out of oil but cheap oil. Therefore the concept of peak oil is economic rather than arithmetic. It is true we have already run out of $5 a barrel oil but we have plenty left at $200 or even $300.

Recently I was reading an article about the sustainability of our natural resources. I felt the world has over-emphasised on energy security without much said about our natural resources like metals and precious stones. Energy may be a major concern, but it is not THE major concern since we already have established alternative energy systems in place, only lacking political willpower to implement them extensively.

There are other pressing issues other than energy. If we are not careful with our priorities we may end up with a situation where we have the best electric car system or found more oil to last for another century but not the materials to build the cars.